Coachella Valley Firebirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 2.41.5
High danger: 72
Chances: 116
Shots: 2319

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances6

7High-danger chances2

2.40Expected goals1.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.7
2nd	11–4	7–1	6–0	1.4–0.2
3rd	3–5	2–3	0–1	0.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: -1.60

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.49
GSAx: -1.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Joe Snively (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 6:21Penalty
1st 6:34John Hayden (1–1)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 13:52Ryan Winterton (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 9:49Ryan Winterton (3–1)high · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 10:14Penalty
2nd 12:51Hardy Häman Aktell (3–2)low · 166 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 15:11John Hayden (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 1:17Penalty
3rd 4:18Penalty
3rd 7:37Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty
3rd 12:17Penalty
3rd 14:16Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 18:04Hendrix Lapierre (4–3)5v4 · medium · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger