AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, June 16

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
2:5
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

CVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
2.62.1
High danger
24
Chances
119
Shots
3421

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal21
11Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances4
2.59Expected goals2.13

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–92–50–30.6–1.2
2nd12–44–31–11.1–0.5
3rd10–85–11–00.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
2.59
GSAx
+0.59
Chris Driedger
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.13
GSAx
-2.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:14Penalty
  • 1st 5:51Ivan Miroshnichenko (0–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 17:33Penalty
  • 1st 18:12Penalty
  • 2nd 2:42Luke Henman (1–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 3:01Penalty
  • 2nd 13:01Jimmy Huntington (1–2)medium · 35 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 16:42Pierrick Dubé (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 0:17Marian Studenic (2–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 9:45Hardy Häman Aktell (2–4)low · rebound · 48 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 18:09Penalty
  • 3rd 19:49Hardy Häman Aktell (2–5)empty net · low · 141 ft · beat Chris Driedger