Hershey Bears at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Hershey Bears

2:6

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HERCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.65.4
High danger: 48
Chances: 1117
Shots: 2442

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal42

11Scoring chances17

4High-danger chances8

2.59Expected goals5.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–10	7–7	3–3	1.4–2.0
2nd	6–23	2–5	1–1	0.5–2.2
3rd	9–9	2–5	0–4	0.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	7:01 of the 3rd	12:59	12:59	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.53
GSAx: +0.53

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: +0.59

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 5
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.84
GSAx: -1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:30Penalty
1st 2:20Max McCormick (0–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 6:03Max McCormick (0–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 8:50Henrik Rybinski (1–2)low · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 15:52Penalty
2nd 0:40Penalty
2nd 1:29Alex Limoges (2–2)5v4 · medium · 47 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 4:06Lleyton Roed (2–3)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 16:00Ryan Winterton (2–4)medium · 7 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 17:52Penalty
3rd 7:01Shane Wright (2–5)high · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 13:27Penalty
3rd 13:27Penalty
3rd 18:24Max McCormick (2–6)empty net · low · 119 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 18:48Penalty