AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, June 20

Hershey Bears at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Hershey Bears
3:2
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HERCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.22.5
High danger
43
Chances
813
Shots
2524

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal24
8Scoring chances13
4High-danger chances3
2.21Expected goals2.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–41–21–00.7–0.4
2nd9–94–52–10.9–1.0
3rd5–113–61–20.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.20
GSAx
-0.80
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.55
GSAx
+0.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:58Penalty
  • 1st 9:19Penalty
  • 1st 18:37Ethen Frank (1–0)low · 22 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 5:11Penalty
  • 2nd 8:54Penalty
  • 2nd 8:54Penalty
  • 2nd 9:40Shane Wright (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 10:04Penalty
  • 2nd 12:31Penalty
  • 2nd 14:59Penalty
  • 2nd 18:00Hendrix Lapierre (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 2nd 18:38Penalty
  • 2nd 19:13Penalty
  • 3rd 0:32Ryker Evans (2–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 3:38Penalty
  • 3rd 3:38Penalty
  • 3rd 3:38Penalty
  • 3rd 4:21Joe Snively (3–2)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 4:28Penalty