Hershey Bears at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Hershey Bears

3:2

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HERCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 1.92.4
High danger: 34
Chances: 810
Shots: 2026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal26

8Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

1.85Expected goals2.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	4–6	2–3	0.9–1.2
2nd	4–15	3–2	0–1	0.4–0.9
3rd	8–3	1–2	1–0	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: +0.35

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: -1.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:51Penalty
1st 10:05Kole Lind (0–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
1st 10:34Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 19:58Jimmy Huntington (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 8:01Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
2nd 15:11Penalty
3rd 4:43Ryan Winterton (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 8:26Hardy Häman Aktell (2–2)low · 51 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 8:33Penalty
3rd 16:45Jimmy Huntington (3–2)low · 28 ft · beat Chris Driedger