AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, June 24

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:5
Final / OT
Hershey Bears

The sheet

CVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
1.92.4
High danger
25
Chances
712
Shots
2122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal22
7Scoring chances12
2High-danger chances5
1.94Expected goals2.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–102–60–30.5–1.2
2nd5–62–21–10.6–0.5
3rd8–53–41–10.7–0.6
OT1–10–00–00.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:040:09+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.40
GSAx
-2.60
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
21
Saves
17
Allowed
4
xGA
1.94
GSAx
-2.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:37Ryan Winterton (1–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 4:27Penalty
  • 1st 5:51Pierrick Dubé (1–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 16:42Penalty
  • 1st 19:24Hendrix Lapierre (1–2)high · 22 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 1:51Marian Studenic (2–2)low · 29 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 7:59Ryan Winterton (3–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 13:52Pierrick Dubé (3–3)high · 16 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 5:39Penalty
  • 3rd 8:56Pierrick Dubé (3–4)medium · 10 ft · beat Chris Driedger
  • 3rd 17:05Cale Fleury (4–4)medium · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • OT 1:06Matt Strome (4–5)low · 13 ft · beat Chris Driedger