Laval Rocket at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Laval Rocket

5:2

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

LAVPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.21.3
High danger: 32
Chances: 86
Shots: 3914

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal14

8Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances2

3.23Expected goals1.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	3–3	2–2	1.4–0.6
2nd	13–3	1–1	0–0	0.8–0.3
3rd	13–6	4–2	1–0	1.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 34
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: -1.77

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 12
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:54Penalty
1st 3:06Vinni Lettieri (0–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 4:02Penalty
1st 10:36Patrick Brown (0–2)low · 59 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 12:57Adam Engström (1–2)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 14:32Penalty
2nd 2:34Penalty
2nd 5:58Penalty
2nd 7:32Filip Mešár (2–2)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 13:13Logan Mailloux (3–2)low · 23 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 13:30Penalty
2nd 14:18Penalty
3rd 2:36William Trudeau (4–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 7:06Penalty
3rd 13:07Logan Mailloux (5–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Brandon Bussi