Belleville Senators at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Belleville Senators

3:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BELROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.62.5
High danger: 95
Chances: 148
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

14Scoring chances8

9High-danger chances5

3.60Expected goals2.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	4–3	3–3	1.1–1.0
2nd	9–6	5–2	1–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	11–8	5–3	5–2	1.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:01	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.60
GSAx: +0.60

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: +0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:20Penalty
1st 8:57Penalty
1st 12:00Josh Dunne (0–1)low · 37 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 15:07Penalty
1st 17:05Xavier Bourgault (1–1)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 18:17Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 2:45Penalty
2nd 7:08Penalty
2nd 15:30Penalty
2nd 17:53Cole Reinhardt (2–1)low · 32 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 2:46Penalty
3rd 4:17Philippe Daoust (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 10:31Penalty
3rd 13:06Tyson Kozak (3–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen