Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners

1:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.02.6
High danger: 36
Chances: 89
Shots: 2125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances6

1.98Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	2–6	0–4	0.4–1.4
2nd	12–7	4–1	2–0	1.1–0.6
3rd	5–7	2–2	1–2	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	16:00 of the 3rd	4:00	4:00	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: -0.38

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: +0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:19Penalty
1st 15:05Penalty
2nd 2:32Penalty
2nd 3:45Penalty
2nd 9:03Penalty
2nd 10:44Penalty
2nd 12:42Jacob MacDonald (0–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 14:25Penalty
2nd 15:23Matthew Stienburg (0–2)4v5 · low · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 18:04Penalty
2nd 19:24Penalty
3rd 0:41Egor Sokolov (1–2)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 2:13Penalty
3rd 5:37Penalty
3rd 9:45Penalty
3rd 11:28Penalty
3rd 13:16Penalty
3rd 16:00Matthew Phillips (1–3)high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta