San Diego Gulls at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

San Diego Gulls

3:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SDTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.42.5
High danger: 14
Chances: 48
Shots: 2130

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal30

4Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances4

1.41Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	1–1	0–0	0.5–0.2
2nd	6–17	2–5	0–4	0.4–1.6
3rd	7–9	1–2	1–0	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	18:11 of the 3rd	1:49	1:49	+0.042 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: -1.49

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.41
GSAx: -1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:05Nikita Nesterenko (1–0)low · 32 ft · beat Matt Murray
1st 10:41Penalty
2nd 7:06Penalty
2nd 9:13Jacob Quillan (1–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 12:32Penalty
2nd 14:39Marshall Rifai (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 16:17Roni Hirvonen (1–3)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 0:56Carson Meyer (2–3)high · 10 ft · beat Matt Murray
3rd 14:45Jansen Harkins (3–3)low · 49 ft · beat Matt Murray
3rd 18:11Nick Abruzzese (3–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Oscar Dansk