AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 12

Cleveland Monsters at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Cleveland Monsters
3:7
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLEHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
3.04.1
High danger
49
Chances
1014
Shots
3335

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal35
10Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances9
3.01Expected goals4.11

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–102–40–10.8–0.9
2nd12–135–43–31.3–1.4
3rd10–123–61–50.9–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLE−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLE35:40 of the 3rd14:2014:20+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves
Shots faced
35
Saves
28
Allowed
7
xGA
4.11
GSAx
-2.89
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.01
GSAx
+0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:00Vincent Iorio (0–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 1st 10:51Penalty
  • 1st 16:05Penalty
  • 2nd 0:09Penalty
  • 2nd 2:11Rocco Grimaldi (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 3:45Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 11:50Roman Ahcan (2–1)low · 23 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 12:20Penalty
  • 2nd 13:07Ethen Frank (2–2)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 2nd 14:11Penalty
  • 2nd 16:55Bogdan Trineyev (2–3)low · 39 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 2nd 17:30Penalty
  • 2nd 17:42Ethen Frank (2–4)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:40Ethen Frank (2–5)grade A · 22 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 3rd 6:11Ethan Bear (2–6)grade A · 13 ft · beat Jet Greaves
  • 3rd 11:08Penalty
  • 3rd 12:18Denton Mateychuk (3–6)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 19:03Luke Philp (3–7)high · 7 ft · beat Jet Greaves