Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

6:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 1.72.3
High danger: 14
Chances: 84
Shots: 2228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal28

8Scoring chances4

1High-danger chances4

1.71Expected goals2.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–8	0–0	0–0	0.2–0.4
2nd	11–9	6–2	1–2	1.0–0.9
3rd	6–11	2–2	0–2	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -1.72

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 16
Allowed: 6
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: -4.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:45Ben King (1–0)low · wrist · 49 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 9:54Penalty
1st 12:52Brendan Gaunce (1–1)low · wrist · 58 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 7:23Dominic Toninato (2–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 8:20Penalty
2nd 12:57Penalty
2nd 13:54Elias Salomonsson (3–1)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 15:11Reese Johnson (3–2)low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 15:31Penalty
2nd 15:48Parker Ford (4–2)4v5 · low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 16:23Penalty
2nd 17:23Travis Boyd (4–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 18:16Michael Milne (4–4)5v4 · low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 11:07Simon Lundmark (5–4)medium · 5 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 16:12Penalty
3rd 19:10Nikita Chibrikov (6–4)empty net · low · 36 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj