Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans

4:1

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.81.8
High danger: 51
Chances: 158
Shots: 4020

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal20

15Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances1

3.81Expected goals1.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–2	7–1	2–0	1.9–0.2
2nd	11–10	3–5	2–1	0.9–1.0
3rd	13–8	5–2	1–0	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 36
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: -0.19

Michael Houser

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.79
GSAx: +0.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:07Viktor Neuchev (1–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 9:23Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 11:04Kale Clague (2–0)medium · 29 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 14:53Penalty
1st 18:54Penalty
2nd 5:21Max Willman (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Michael Houser
2nd 9:58Isak Rosén (3–1)high · 5 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 12:10Penalty
2nd 12:10Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:50Penalty
2nd 19:15Penalty
2nd 19:15Penalty
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 19:09Nikita Novikov (4–1)empty net · low · 147 ft · beat Nico Daws