Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

4:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.73.1
High danger: 66
Chances: 1110
Shots: 2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances6

2.73Expected goals3.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–8	4–1	1–1	0.7–0.7
2nd	9–13	4–7	3–5	1.1–1.7
3rd	8–11	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: +2.10

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:38Penalty
1st 17:03Joakim Kemell (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 2:49Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 7:01Cal O’Reilly (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 11:22Penalty
2nd 13:07Ryan Suzuki (2–1)5v4 · low · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 13:25Penalty
2nd 14:07Penalty
3rd 5:21Kieffer Bellows (3–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 9:52Penalty
3rd 16:10Penalty
3rd 17:47Reid Schaefer (4–1)empty net · low · 38 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 19:10Penalty