Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

1:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 1.73.6
High danger: 45
Chances: 611
Shots: 1933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances5

1.71Expected goals3.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–15	2–3	2–0	0.7–1.0
2nd	8–11	3–4	1–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	4–7	1–4	1–4	0.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.59
GSAx: -0.41

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: +0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:07Penalty
1st 6:07Penalty
1st 16:57Colton Dach (0–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 2:01Penalty
2nd 5:09Penalty
2nd 5:30Kevin Korchinski (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 7:19Penalty
2nd 9:28Cavan Fitzgerald (0–3)low · 52 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 17:02Samuel Savoie (0–4)low · 24 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 8:06Penalty
3rd 13:48Brogan Rafferty (1–4)low · tip · 21 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 16:07Penalty
3rd 16:07Penalty