San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda

5:0

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 3.42.8
High danger: 65
Chances: 1512
Shots: 2322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal22

15Scoring chances12

6High-danger chances5

3.41Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–5	2–4	1–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	9–11	6–4	1–2	1.2–1.3
3rd	8–6	7–4	4–3	1.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -1.59

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 22
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: +2.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:27Anthony Vincent (1–0)low · 75 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 9:15Penalty
1st 9:15Penalty
1st 11:13Penalty
2nd 0:59Penalty
2nd 2:34Kasper Halttunen (2–0)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 5:43Penalty
2nd 11:20Penalty
2nd 18:40Penalty
3rd 1:32Penalty
3rd 4:06Penalty
3rd 12:24Collin Graf (3–0)high · 12 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 12:44Penalty
3rd 15:09Penalty
3rd 16:02Penalty
3rd 16:25Kasper Halttunen (4–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 17:49Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:09Penalty
3rd 18:21Penalty
3rd 18:21Penalty
3rd 18:53Joey Keane (5–0)medium · 34 ft · beat Erik Portillo