AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 12

Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners
4:2
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
39%61%
xG
2.53.7
High danger
65
Chances
1114
Shots
2435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal35
11Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances5
2.48Expected goals3.67

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–72–41–10.4–0.6
2nd9–83–31–10.8–0.9
3rd11–206–74–31.3–2.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
3.67
GSAx
+1.67
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-1.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:02Penalty
  • 1st 2:33Ben McCartney (1–0)5v4 · medium · 7 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 1st 3:36Penalty
  • 1st 4:36Jason Polin (1–1)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 14:14Penalty
  • 1st 17:34Penalty
  • 1st 17:34Penalty
  • 2nd 0:37Penalty
  • 2nd 1:17Aku Räty (2–1)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 3:45Penalty
  • 2nd 7:04Penalty
  • 2nd 9:30Penalty
  • 2nd 11:15Penalty
  • 2nd 16:12Penalty
  • 3rd 0:16Penalty
  • 3rd 0:16Penalty
  • 3rd 2:23Penalty
  • 3rd 2:23Penalty
  • 3rd 2:31Andrew Agozzino (3–1)high · 10 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 4:54Jacob MacDonald (3–2)low · 17 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 8:22Penalty
  • 3rd 9:10Aku Räty (4–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 9:44Penalty
  • 3rd 14:14Penalty