AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 13

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
4:1
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

WBSSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
83%17%
xG
4.32.2
High danger
71
Chances
159
Shots
3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28
15Scoring chances9
7High-danger chances1
4.25Expected goals2.18

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–123–61–10.9–1.3
2nd15–67–23–02.1–0.5
3rd8–105–13–01.3–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
4.25
GSAx
+0.25
Sergei Murashov
Shots faced
28
Saves
27
Allowed
1
xGA
2.18
GSAx
+1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:00Nate Clurman (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 1st 9:08Penalty
  • 1st 12:59Penalty
  • 1st 18:44Penalty
  • 2nd 3:21Sam Poulin (2–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 5:26Avery Hayes (3–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 7:22Penalty
  • 2nd 12:00Mackenzie MacEachern (3–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
  • 3rd 11:52Penalty
  • 3rd 12:53Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty
  • 3rd 14:29Penalty
  • 3rd 15:47Boris Katchouk (4–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Colten Ellis