AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 13

Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose
3:2
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
13%87%
xG
1.64.3
High danger
27
Chances
619
Shots
2239

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal39
6Scoring chances19
2High-danger chances7
1.65Expected goals4.30

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–173–51–10.6–1.4
2nd8–161–110–40.5–2.1
3rd7–62–31–20.6–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
39
Saves
37
Allowed
2
xGA
4.30
GSAx
+2.30
William Rousseau
Shots faced
22
Saves
19
Allowed
3
xGA
1.65
GSAx
-1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:59Dominic Toninato (1–0)medium · tip · 22 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 1st 5:47Penalty
  • 1st 11:59Bradley Marek (1–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 12:14Penalty
  • 1st 18:31Penalty
  • 2nd 2:28Penalty
  • 2nd 2:28Penalty
  • 2nd 3:22Penalty
  • 2nd 4:03Penalty
  • 2nd 12:00Penalty
  • 2nd 14:15Penalty
  • 3rd 6:02Mark Liwiski (2–1)medium · wrist · 2 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 3rd 6:46Bradley Marek (2–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 15:15Mason Shaw (3–2)high · backhand · 6 ft · beat William Rousseau
  • 3rd 15:52Penalty