San Diego Gulls at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

San Diego Gulls

1:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SDTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.82.8
High danger: 17
Chances: 610
Shots: 3827

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances7

2.81Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–6	3–1	1–1	0.9–0.6
2nd	13–10	2–3	0–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	15–11	1–6	0–5	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: +1.81

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -1.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:52Penalty
1st 10:58Penalty
2nd 4:35Tyson Hinds (1–0)low · 39 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 7:11Penalty
2nd 12:11Penalty
2nd 13:39Alex Nylander (1–1)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 6:42Penalty
3rd 7:13Alex Nylander (1–2)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 8:40Roni Hirvonen (1–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang
3rd 17:40Alex Steeves (1–4)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Calle Clang