Hershey Bears at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hershey Bears

3:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HERBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

26%74%

xG: 1.82.6
High danger: 26
Chances: 510
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

5Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances6

1.83Expected goals2.59

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	1–4	0–4	0.5–1.2
2nd	8–9	2–4	1–0	0.8–0.7
3rd	5–9	2–2	1–2	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: +0.59

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:14Penalty
2nd 0:26Penalty
2nd 10:22Bogdan Trineyev (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 12:15Penalty
2nd 12:24Alex Jefferies (1–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 12:39Penalty
2nd 16:39Chris Terry (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 17:31Penalty
3rd 1:00Penalty
3rd 6:41Penalty
3rd 8:10Penalty
3rd 8:56Mike Sgarbossa (2–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 10:01Ivan Miroshnichenko (3–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Marcus Högberg