Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

3:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 1.92.9
High danger: 31
Chances: 89
Shots: 2240

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal40

8Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances1

1.94Expected goals2.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–14	2–4	0–0	0.7–1.1
2nd	9–14	4–4	2–1	0.9–1.1
3rd	3–12	2–1	1–0	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: +1.91

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:51Penalty
1st 3:40Max Lajoie (0–1)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 5:08Rory Kerins (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 5:37Penalty
1st 6:24Rory Kerins (2–1)5v4 · low · 44 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 7:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Rory Kerins (3–1)high · 19 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 10:22Penalty