Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

5:6

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.63.6
High danger: 47
Chances: 1110
Shots: 3429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal29

11Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances7

2.63Expected goals3.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–13	3–6	1–4	0.7–1.7
2nd	15–6	5–0	2–0	1.2–0.4
3rd	8–10	3–4	1–3	0.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:27	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 29
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -2.37

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 23
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:01Nikita Alexandrov (1–0)low · 61 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 4:27Brennan Othmann (1–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 5:16Penalty
1st 6:31Brennan Othmann (1–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 7:44Penalty
1st 12:31Tarun Fizer (2–2)low · 42 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 16:17Penalty
1st 17:05Jaroslav Chmelar (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 17:52Penalty
1st 19:55Jaroslav Chmelar (2–4)medium · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 5:50Brandon Scanlin (2–5)low · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 6:27Dylan Peterson (3–5)medium · 22 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 10:36Dylan Peterson (4–5)high · 17 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 10:49Penalty
2nd 13:23Penalty
2nd 13:23Penalty
2nd 13:23Penalty
2nd 15:06Penalty
2nd 16:51Penalty
3rd 1:01Penalty
3rd 3:30Penalty
3rd 3:30Penalty
3rd 6:56Penalty
3rd 10:47Brett Berard (4–6)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 12:22Penalty
3rd 12:32Dalibor Dvorský (5–6)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 18:28Penalty
3rd 18:28Penalty