AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 18

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
6:3
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
73%27%
xG
3.21.6
High danger
44
Chances
106
Shots
2919

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal19
10Scoring chances6
4High-danger chances4
3.17Expected goals1.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–82–31–30.9–0.8
2nd14–66–23–11.8–0.5
3rd6–52–10–00.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD33:02 of the 3rd16:5816:58+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
3.17
GSAx
-2.83
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
1.55
GSAx
-1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:15Penalty
  • 1st 4:44Penalty
  • 1st 4:56Cole Guttman (0–1)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 13:14Penalty
  • 1st 13:14Penalty
  • 1st 15:20Austin Strand (0–2)low · 35 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 15:47Zach L’Heureux (1–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 17:44Penalty
  • 1st 17:44Penalty
  • 1st 18:24Adam Wilsby (2–2)low · 41 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 0:26Anthony Angello (3–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 4:59Penalty
  • 2nd 7:43Vinnie Hinostroza (4–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 8:56Zach L’Heureux (5–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 14:00Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Penalty
  • 2nd 18:30Frank Nazar (5–3)4v5 · high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 3:02Reid Schaefer (6–3)medium · 31 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 5:45Penalty
  • 3rd 13:31Penalty
  • 3rd 13:31Penalty
  • 3rd 13:31Penalty
  • 3rd 18:55Penalty
  • 3rd 18:55Penalty