Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors

4:1

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.42.1
High danger: 24
Chances: 57
Shots: 1624

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal24

5Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances4

1.44Expected goals2.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	3–2	1–2	0.6–0.8
2nd	6–11	1–3	0–1	0.4–0.9
3rd	5–4	1–2	1–1	0.4–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +1.10

Jacob Ingham

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 12
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: -0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:59Penalty
1st 9:51Penalty
1st 12:29James Stefan (1–0)medium · 26 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
1st 14:10Penalty
2nd 3:15Penalty
2nd 8:25Penalty
2nd 15:04Seth Griffith (2–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
2nd 16:46Penalty
2nd 18:15Tyler Madden (2–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 5:12Penalty
3rd 8:45Penalty
3rd 17:51Seth Griffith (3–1)empty net · low · 41 ft
3rd 19:51Matthew Savoie (4–1)empty net · low · 86 ft