AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 18

Calgary Wranglers at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Calgary Wranglers
5:3
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

CGYHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
3.63.4
High danger
86
Chances
1413
Shots
3035

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal35
14Scoring chances13
8High-danger chances6
3.59Expected goals3.44

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–123–32–10.7–0.8
2nd16–149–66–22.4–1.6
3rd6–92–40–30.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK30:00 of the 3rd20:0015:46+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.44
GSAx
+0.44
Akira Schmid
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.59
GSAx
-1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:20Rory Kerins (1–0)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 6:59Clark Bishop (2–0)medium · wrist · 31 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 9:50Penalty
  • 1st 14:49Penalty
  • 1st 18:43Penalty
  • 1st 19:37Walker Duehr (3–0)5v4 · high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 0:25Penalty
  • 2nd 10:02Gage Quinney (3–1)high · 176 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 10:20Penalty
  • 2nd 10:55Rory Kerins (4–1)5v4 · grade A · tip · 171 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 11:16Penalty
  • 2nd 16:46Penalty
  • 3rd 1:29Penalty
  • 3rd 3:09Penalty
  • 3rd 9:47Grigori Denisenko (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 13:40Penalty
  • 3rd 15:04Cal Burke (4–3)5v4 · high · 3 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 19:41Penalty
  • 3rd 19:41Clark Bishop (5–3)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid