Cleveland Monsters at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Cleveland Monsters

4:2

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

CLECLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 3.42.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 119
Shots: 3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25

11Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

3.38Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	2–5	0–3	0.9–0.9
2nd	8–9	3–1	1–0	0.7–0.4
3rd	10–10	6–3	3–1	1.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:48	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.38
GSAx: -0.62

Pavel Cajan

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: +0.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:47Penalty
1st 5:59John Leonard (0–1)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
1st 10:34Penalty
1st 17:26Penalty
1st 18:49Penalty
1st 18:49Penalty
1st 19:51Penalty
1st 19:55Owen Sillinger (1–1)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 1:49Penalty
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 17:05Roman Ahcan (2–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 19:52Penalty
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 12:23Penalty
3rd 17:51Matt Luff (2–2)grade A · 8 ft · beat Pavel Cajan
3rd 18:07Trey Fix-Wolansky (3–2)grade A · 194 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 19:40Roman Ahcan (4–2)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Ken Appleby