AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 19

Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs
2:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.32.2
High danger
12
Chances
1110
Shots
2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26
11Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances2
2.26Expected goals2.24

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–122–21–00.4–0.7
2nd10–65–40–11.0–0.7
3rd9–84–40–10.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD212:09 of the 3rd7:517:21+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.24
GSAx
-2.76
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.26
GSAx
+0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:32Reid Schaefer (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 3:08Penalty
  • 1st 3:08Penalty
  • 1st 3:08Penalty
  • 1st 3:08Penalty
  • 1st 11:20Vinnie Hinostroza (0–2)low · 29 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 18:54Nick Blankenburg (0–3)low · 46 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 19:39Penalty
  • 1st 19:39Penalty
  • 2nd 5:29Penalty
  • 2nd 7:51Penalty
  • 2nd 8:28Penalty
  • 2nd 10:59Penalty
  • 2nd 13:14Brandon Baddock (1–3)low · 39 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 13:34Penalty
  • 2nd 13:34Penalty
  • 2nd 15:07Penalty
  • 3rd 5:30Penalty
  • 3rd 7:43Penalty
  • 3rd 9:30Penalty
  • 3rd 11:38Penalty
  • 3rd 16:26Frank Nazar (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 18:48Zach L’Heureux (2–4)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 19:11Nick Blankenburg (2–5)empty net · low · 125 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks