AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 19

Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets
4:5
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
27%73%
xG
2.13.5
High danger
58
Chances
913
Shots
2328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal28
9Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances8
2.07Expected goals3.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–122–61–30.4–1.4
2nd6–112–52–40.5–1.5
3rd12–55–22–11.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

UTC−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
UTC30:37 of the 3rd19:2311:12+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
3.46
GSAx
-1.54
Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.07
GSAx
-1.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:03Zack Ostapchuk (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 1st 6:48Jeremy Davies (0–2)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 1st 8:54Penalty
  • 1st 8:54Penalty
  • 1st 10:03Cole Reinhardt (0–3)low · 55 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 1st 16:20Penalty
  • 2nd 0:34Penalty
  • 2nd 3:31Penalty
  • 2nd 7:01Donovan Sebrango (0–4)low · 43 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 2nd 9:19Colton White (1–4)low · 52 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 12:37Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:04Penalty
  • 2nd 16:28Penalty
  • 2nd 17:53Justin Dowling (2–4)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 2nd 18:51Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:37Angus Crookshank (2–5)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
  • 3rd 4:32Penalty
  • 3rd 4:32Penalty
  • 3rd 6:51Penalty
  • 3rd 8:23Brian Halonen (3–5)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 3rd 12:31Mike Hardman (4–5)low · 38 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen