Iowa Wild at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Iowa Wild

0:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

IASJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.23.8
High danger: 36
Chances: 816
Shots: 2642

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal42

8Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances6

2.23Expected goals3.79

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–15	1–4	1–2	0.6–1.1
2nd	7–15	1–7	1–2	0.3–1.6
3rd	9–12	6–5	1–2	1.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	6:20 of the 3rd	13:40	13:40	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 37
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.79
GSAx: -1.21

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 26
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: +2.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:14Penalty
1st 12:14Penalty
1st 19:04Penalty
2nd 1:07Penalty
2nd 3:51Penalty
2nd 3:51Penalty
2nd 11:44Penalty
2nd 11:44Donavan Houle (0–1)low · 11 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
2nd 12:38Penalty
3rd 4:10Anthony Vincent (0–2)medium · 30 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 4:23Penalty
3rd 6:20Donavan Houle (0–3)4v5 · high · 8 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 11:43Penalty
3rd 13:09Colin White (0–4)4v5 · medium · 30 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 16:44Penalty
3rd 18:10Luca Cagnoni (0–5)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt