AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 19

Texas Stars at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Texas Stars
6:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

TEXTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
3.93.6
High danger
68
Chances
1514
Shots
3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29
15Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances8
3.92Expected goals3.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–112–42–31.0–1.3
2nd17–89–62–41.8–1.4
3rd9–104–42–11.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC118:46 of the 3rd1:141:14+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
35
Saves
30
Allowed
5
xGA
3.67
GSAx
-1.33
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
3.56
GSAx
-0.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:40Penalty
  • 1st 2:40Penalty
  • 1st 4:37Penalty
  • 1st 17:28Cameron Hebig (0–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 17:48Kole Lind (1–1)low · 41 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 19:55Maveric Lamoureux (1–2)low · 61 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 8:38Andrew Agozzino (1–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 10:49Penalty
  • 2nd 10:49Penalty
  • 2nd 10:49Penalty
  • 2nd 16:09Chase Wheatcroft (2–3)5v4 · low · 34 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 18:31Justin Hryckowian (3–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 18:45Penalty
  • 3rd 4:59Penalty
  • 3rd 9:29Hunter Drew (3–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 13:15Michael Karow (4–4)low · 54 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 13:51Penalty
  • 3rd 16:59Penalty
  • 3rd 18:46Emilio Pettersen (5–4)4v5 · high · 7 ft
  • 3rd 19:09Justin Hryckowian (6–4)empty net · high · 22 ft · beat Matthew Villalta