Texas Stars at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Texas Stars

4:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

TEXTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

82%18%

xG: 4.82.2
High danger: 64
Chances: 199
Shots: 4522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

45Shots on goal22

19Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances4

4.83Expected goals2.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–9	3–5	0–3	1.1–1.2
2nd	10–11	5–4	2–1	1.1–1.0
3rd	20–2	11–0	4–0	2.6–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	19:43 of the 3rd	0:17	0:17	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 41
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.83
GSAx: +0.83

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.19
GSAx: -0.81

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:08Chase Wheatcroft (1–0)low · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 12:34Penalty
1st 15:28Hunter Drew (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 0:56Milos Kelemen (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 4:23Penalty
2nd 11:04Penalty
2nd 13:12Maveric Lamoureux (1–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 19:54Penalty
3rd 2:03Curtis McKenzie (2–3)high · 7 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 9:35Arttu Hyry (3–3)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Alex Petrovic (4–3)low · 65 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber