Milwaukee Admirals at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Milwaukee Admirals

4:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MILIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 1.92.7
High danger: 14
Chances: 611
Shots: 2532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal32

6Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances4

1.86Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	1–1	0–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	8–13	4–6	1–2	0.8–1.3
3rd	9–12	1–4	0–2	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: +0.73

Jesper Wallstedt

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -2.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:12Penalty
1st 14:43Fedor Svechkov (1–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 4:51Penalty
2nd 8:03Penalty
2nd 8:21Vinnie Hinostroza (2–0)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 1:45Michael Milne (2–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 2:06Penalty
3rd 3:23Sammy Walker (2–2)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 5:25Penalty
3rd 6:28Penalty
3rd 11:50Reid Schaefer (3–2)low · tip · 61 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
3rd 18:08Kevin Wall (4–2)empty net · low · 48 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt