AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 25

Hershey Bears at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hershey Bears
2:1
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

HERPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
2.73.4
High danger
37
Chances
1311
Shots
2839

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal39
13Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances7
2.75Expected goals3.39

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–142–31–10.7–1.0
2nd13–146–41–31.3–1.3
3rd6–115–41–30.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
39
Saves
38
Allowed
1
xGA
3.39
GSAx
+2.39
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.75
GSAx
+0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:45Tyler Pitlick (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 6:52Penalty
  • 1st 6:52Penalty
  • 1st 15:04Penalty
  • 2nd 0:25Ethen Frank (1–1)low · 36 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 3:09Penalty
  • 2nd 5:24Henrik Rybinski (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 12:06Penalty
  • 3rd 2:17Penalty
  • 3rd 4:04Penalty
  • 3rd 7:49Penalty
  • 3rd 10:57Penalty
  • 3rd 15:32Penalty