Grand Rapids Griffins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Grand Rapids Griffins

2:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

GRSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.12.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 89
Shots: 2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances3

2.10Expected goals2.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–8	1–2	1–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	11–12	5–3	3–2	1.2–1.2
3rd	7–12	2–4	0–0	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +0.10

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 21
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: +1.93

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 10
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.82
GSAx: -0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:52Penalty
1st 6:14Matthew Peca (0–1)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Ville Husso
1st 7:39Penalty
1st 7:39Penalty
2nd 4:05Penalty
2nd 6:16Penalty
2nd 9:04Penalty
2nd 9:30Penalty
2nd 12:28Penalty
2nd 15:38Penalty
2nd 16:46Nate Danielson (1–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 5:30Gabriel Seger (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 17:57Penalty