AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 25

Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild
2:6
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
4.12.6
High danger
75
Chances
1512
Shots
3823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal23
15Scoring chances12
7High-danger chances5
4.08Expected goals2.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–87–35–11.6–0.7
2nd12–96–62–21.5–1.1
3rd13–62–30–21.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
38
Saves
36
Allowed
2
xGA
4.08
GSAx
+2.08
Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-3.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:59Penalty
  • 1st 9:53Penalty
  • 1st 10:01Cameron Hughes (0–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 11:48Penalty
  • 1st 11:48Penalty
  • 1st 13:15Brendan Gaunce (1–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 18:13Kyle Capobianco (1–2)low · 45 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 3:24Penalty
  • 2nd 4:56Penalty
  • 2nd 7:55Penalty
  • 2nd 9:55Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 14:33Arttu Hyry (1–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 14:41Penalty
  • 2nd 14:41Penalty
  • 2nd 14:41Penalty
  • 2nd 14:41Penalty
  • 2nd 16:36Penalty
  • 2nd 17:59Arttu Hyry (1–4)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 5:03Antonio Stranges (1–5)medium · 20 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 8:58Penalty
  • 3rd 9:49Jack Becker (1–6)4v5 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 13:27Penalty
  • 3rd 15:44Will Zmolek (2–6)low · rebound · 62 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 15:54Penalty