AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 25

Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors
3:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
4.54.6
High danger
910
Chances
1715
Shots
4240

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal40
17Scoring chances15
9High-danger chances10
4.53Expected goals4.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–105–44–31.5–1.3
2nd12–207–72–31.3–2.0
3rd17–105–43–41.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK212:53 of the 3rd7:074:38+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
42
Saves
39
Allowed
3
xGA
4.53
GSAx
+1.53
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
40
Saves
35
Allowed
5
xGA
4.59
GSAx
-0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:26Andrew Agozzino (0–1)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 8:30Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:53Penalty
  • 1st 13:57Penalty
  • 1st 13:57Penalty
  • 1st 13:57Penalty
  • 1st 13:57Penalty
  • 1st 19:53Hunter Drew (0–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 2:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:21Penalty
  • 2nd 14:48Penalty
  • 2nd 16:17Drake Caggiula (1–2)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 3:23Penalty
  • 3rd 12:53Hunter Drew (1–3)low · 46 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:27Ben Gleason (2–3)low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 14:56Seth Griffith (3–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 15:52Egor Sokolov (3–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 18:37Egor Sokolov (3–5)high · 21 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue