AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, October 25

Ontario Reign at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Ontario Reign
2:5
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ONTCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
17%83%
xG
2.84.7
High danger
310
Chances
622
Shots
3040

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal40
6Scoring chances22
3High-danger chances10
2.75Expected goals4.69

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–190–110–30.4–2.1
2nd7–132–71–50.9–1.6
3rd14–84–42–21.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:18+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
40
Saves
35
Allowed
5
xGA
4.69
GSAx
-0.31
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
30
Saves
28
Allowed
2
xGA
2.76
GSAx
+0.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:35Max McCormick (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 12:58Jacob Melanson (0–2)high · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 14:05Penalty
  • 1st 16:04Ryan Winterton (0–3)4v5 · high · 21 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 16:47Penalty
  • 1st 19:46Penalty
  • 2nd 1:41Penalty
  • 2nd 4:29Penalty
  • 2nd 10:15Penalty
  • 2nd 11:11Penalty
  • 2nd 14:30Shawn Element (1–3)low · 35 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 2nd 17:06Penalty
  • 2nd 19:34Jani Nyman (1–4)high · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 0:58Penalty
  • 3rd 0:58Penalty
  • 3rd 0:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:27Francesco Pinelli (2–4)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
  • 3rd 8:24Penalty
  • 3rd 14:04Penalty
  • 3rd 14:04Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Logan Morrison (2–5)empty net · low · 27 ft · beat Pheonix Copley