Rockford IceHogs at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Rockford IceHogs

5:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

RFDMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.33.2
High danger: 85
Chances: 1212
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

12Scoring chances12

8High-danger chances5

3.25Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	3–5	2–1	0.7–1.0
2nd	8–7	5–1	3–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	13–14	4–6	3–3	1.4–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +0.18

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: -1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:50Penalty
1st 8:24C.J. Suess (0–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 14:52Penalty
1st 17:39Penalty
1st 19:56Mason Shaw (0–2)high · 8 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 5:13Gavin Hayes (1–2)high · 6 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 8:12Cavan Fitzgerald (2–2)low · 39 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 10:01Penalty
2nd 10:08Cole Guttman (3–2)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 4:41Colton Dach (4–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 13:13Ryder Rolston (5–2)high · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 15:31Penalty
3rd 16:48Penalty
3rd 17:11Nikita Chibrikov (5–3)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks