Laval Rocket at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Laval Rocket

4:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

LAVUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.82.8
High danger: 34
Chances: 510
Shots: 1834

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal34

5Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

1.76Expected goals2.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	0–0	0–0	0.3–0.4
2nd	7–16	3–5	2–1	0.9–1.4
3rd	4–9	2–5	1–3	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Hughes

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: -0.16

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 9
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.13
GSAx: -1.87

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 5
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.63
GSAx: -0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:17Penalty
1st 12:53Nolan Foote (0–1)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Connor Hughes
1st 15:14Luke Tuch (1–1)low · 67 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 16:59Joshua Roy (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 5:14Penalty
2nd 6:05Adam Beckman (2–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 29 ft · beat Connor Hughes
2nd 10:57Jared Davidson (3–2)grade A · 11 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 12:10Luke Tuch (4–2)low · 18 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 13:52Nolan Foote (4–3)low · 58 ft · beat Connor Hughes
3rd 6:31Penalty