Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies

1:2

Final / SO

Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 2.22.7
High danger: 32
Chances: 89
Shots: 2433

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal33

8Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances2

2.15Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–8	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.4
2nd	11–10	3–4	1–1	0.8–1.0
3rd	7–11	4–3	2–0	0.9–0.8
OT	2–4	1–1	0–1	0.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: +1.69

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +1.15

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 19:03Jan Jeník (0–1)low · 48 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 5:25Alex Steeves (1–1)low · 37 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 12:18Penalty
2nd 15:15Penalty
3rd 2:00Penalty
3rd 15:25Penalty