AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 26

Hershey Bears at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hershey Bears
6:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HERSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.73.5
High danger
65
Chances
1010
Shots
3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28
10Scoring chances10
6High-danger chances5
2.69Expected goals3.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–162–71–40.5–2.4
2nd13–54–11–11.0–0.3
3rd10–74–24–01.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR310:16 of the 3rd9:449:44+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
30
Saves
24
Allowed
6
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-3.31
Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
3.45
GSAx
+1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:28Reece Newkirk (0–1)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 6:41Matthew Peca (0–2)low · 39 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 8:34Penalty
  • 1st 10:11Penalty
  • 1st 11:08Alex Limoges (1–2)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 11:28Penalty
  • 2nd 0:53Penalty
  • 2nd 1:36Chase Priskie (2–2)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 2:56Penalty
  • 2nd 4:30Chase Priskie (3–2)5v4 · low · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 8:46Penalty
  • 2nd 14:31Penalty
  • 2nd 17:11Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 9:13Aaron Ness (4–2)low · 47 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 10:16Alex Limoges (5–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 13:19Riley Sutter (6–2)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 16:38Penalty