Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

5:1

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.12.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances3

2.06Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	5–6	0–1	1.0–1.1
2nd	6–14	3–6	1–2	0.6–1.4
3rd	4–8	2–0	1–0	0.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +1.84

Yaniv Perets

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.06
GSAx: -2.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:00Penalty
1st 9:17Kieffer Bellows (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
1st 10:56Joakim Kemell (2–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
1st 14:45Penalty
1st 19:18Joakim Kemell (3–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 12:54Joakim Ryan (3–1)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 13:28Kieffer Bellows (4–1)low · 35 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
2nd 17:27Penalty
3rd 0:45Penalty
3rd 8:45Penalty
3rd 9:26Penalty
3rd 10:14Joakim Kemell (5–1)5v4 · medium · 45 ft · beat Yaniv Perets
3rd 11:54Penalty
3rd 11:54Penalty
3rd 18:44Penalty