AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, October 26

Iowa Wild at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Iowa Wild
2:3
Final / OT
Texas Stars

The sheet

IATEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
67%33%
xG
6.13.6
High danger
75
Chances
1912
Shots
4136

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal36
19Scoring chances12
7High-danger chances5
6.08Expected goals3.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–125–41–11.3–1.1
2nd15–89–33–12.0–1.0
3rd13–125–53–32.7–1.3
OT1–40–00–00.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:042:13+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
6.08
GSAx
+4.08
Jesper Wallstedt
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.61
GSAx
+0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:03Penalty
  • 1st 6:56Cameron Hughes (0–1)low · 49 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 1st 7:25Penalty
  • 1st 7:25Penalty
  • 1st 14:11Penalty
  • 1st 17:31Penalty
  • 2nd 0:55Penalty
  • 2nd 6:42Penalty
  • 2nd 9:21Reese Johnson (1–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 18:03Penalty
  • 3rd 2:33Alex Petrovic (1–2)low · rebound · 46 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt
  • 3rd 4:25Penalty
  • 3rd 9:17Penalty
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 19:09Ben Jones (2–2)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • OT 1:35Penalty
  • OT 3:55Christian Kyrou (2–3)low · 57 ft · beat Jesper Wallstedt