San Diego Gulls at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

San Diego Gulls

4:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

SDABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.62.8
High danger: 33
Chances: 86
Shots: 2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances3

2.58Expected goals2.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	2–1	1–1	1.2–0.5
2nd	12–8	6–2	2–1	1.3–0.8
3rd	1–12	0–3	0–1	0.1–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +1.77

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.59
GSAx: -1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:44Penalty
1st 6:44Penalty
1st 12:54Sam Colangelo (1–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 18:16Penalty
2nd 4:17Penalty
2nd 9:11Penalty
2nd 12:48Roland McKeown (2–0)low · 41 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 17:38Penalty
2nd 18:00Penalty
2nd 18:51Jansen Harkins (3–0)5v4 · medium · 55 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 19:53Jansen Harkins (4–0)5v4 · low · 36 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 9:52Penalty
3rd 10:32Chase Wouters (4–1)4v5 · grade A · 44 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 18:13Penalty