AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 27

Hershey Bears at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Hershey Bears
2:1
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

HERPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
1.91.6
High danger
32
Chances
66
Shots
2325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal25
6Scoring chances6
3High-danger chances2
1.92Expected goals1.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–82–11–10.6–0.5
2nd10–53–22–11.0–0.4
3rd5–121–30–00.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
1.60
GSAx
+0.60
Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
1.92
GSAx
-0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:12Vinni Lettieri (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 18:44Penalty
  • 2nd 8:32Penalty
  • 2nd 10:11Penalty
  • 2nd 10:32Penalty
  • 2nd 11:16Penalty
  • 2nd 14:28Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–1)high · 30 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 3rd 0:20Ethen Frank (2–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 2:35Penalty
  • 3rd 2:35Penalty
  • 3rd 3:45Penalty
  • 3rd 14:12Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty