Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

5:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 2.22.0
High danger: 60
Chances: 86
Shots: 2329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances0

2.22Expected goals2.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	4–2	4–0	1.0–0.9
2nd	7–10	0–2	0–0	0.4–0.7
3rd	9–7	4–2	2–0	0.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:09 of the 3rd	19:51	19:51	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.00
GSAx: -0.00

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: -2.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:23Penalty
1st 8:16Benoit-Olivier Groulx (0–1)low · 47 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 8:39Penalty
1st 11:12Drew Callin (1–1)high · 9 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 12:39Penalty
1st 18:32Penalty
2nd 2:21Penalty
2nd 5:11Penalty
2nd 5:11Penalty
2nd 8:52Dalibor Dvorský (2–1)low · 50 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 11:08Tanner Dickinson (3–1)low · 35 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 13:14Penalty
3rd 0:09Marcus Sylvegard (4–1)high · 24 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 0:54Penalty
3rd 3:28Hunter Skinner (5–1)low · 46 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 10:32Dylan Roobroeck (5–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 13:56Penalty