AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, October 27

Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
5:1
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.32.7
High danger
33
Chances
118
Shots
2232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal32
11Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances3
2.27Expected goals2.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–115–20–11.0–0.7
2nd7–103–52–20.7–1.3
3rd5–113–11–00.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
32
Saves
31
Allowed
1
xGA
2.70
GSAx
+1.70
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.27
GSAx
-2.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:04Penalty
  • 1st 7:13Penalty
  • 1st 8:18Gage Quinney (1–0)5v4 · medium · 39 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 12:39Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Aatu Jämsen (1–1)low · 24 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 18:46Penalty
  • 1st 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 3:15Penalty
  • 2nd 4:10Tanner Laczynski (2–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 6:48Raphael Lavoie (3–1)high · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 9:57Penalty
  • 2nd 10:31Gage Quinney (4–1)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 13:27Penalty
  • 2nd 16:25Penalty
  • 2nd 19:21Penalty
  • 3rd 7:01Penalty
  • 3rd 7:01Penalty
  • 3rd 7:30Mason Morelli (5–1)high · rebound · 20 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 11:04Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Penalty
  • 3rd 17:49Penalty