AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, October 29

Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners
0:3
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
2.12.7
High danger
43
Chances
99
Shots
2236

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal36
9Scoring chances9
4High-danger chances3
2.05Expected goals2.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–134–03–01.0–0.6
2nd9–102–40–00.6–0.8
3rd4–133–51–30.4–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
2.74
GSAx
-0.26
Jiří Patera
Shots faced
22
Saves
22
Allowed
0
xGA
2.05
GSAx
+2.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:01Penalty
  • 1st 14:15Penalty
  • 1st 16:14Penalty
  • 2nd 8:22Penalty
  • 2nd 9:14Penalty
  • 2nd 15:16Penalty
  • 2nd 19:07Penalty
  • 2nd 19:52Penalty
  • 3rd 5:30John Stevens (0–1)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:44Penalty
  • 3rd 11:16Kirill Kudryavtsev (0–2)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 15:45Penalty
  • 3rd 16:20Penalty
  • 3rd 16:20Jonathan Lekkerimäki (0–3)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 16:44Penalty
  • 3rd 16:44Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty
  • 3rd 18:25Penalty