Coachella Valley Firebirds at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

1:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

CVSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 3.45.0
High danger: 412
Chances: 1419
Shots: 3738

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal38

14Scoring chances19

4High-danger chances12

3.37Expected goals5.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–13	3–6	1–4	0.8–1.5
2nd	9–11	4–7	2–4	0.9–1.7
3rd	16–14	7–6	1–4	1.7–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	3:52 of the 3rd	16:08	16:08	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 33
Allowed: 5
xGA: 5.01
GSAx: +0.01

Yaroslav Askarov

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +2.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:34Luke Grainger (0–1)high · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 8:32Collin Graf (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 5:08Penalty
2nd 10:30Ben Meyers (1–2)medium · 19 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
2nd 12:30Penalty
2nd 13:02Colin White (1–3)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 3:52Lucas Vanroboys (1–4)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 10:21Penalty
3rd 16:50Andrew Poturalski (1–5)empty net · low · 128 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 17:34Penalty
3rd 17:34Penalty